Methodology · v1.0

How the Falcoscan Heat Score is calculated.

A weighted composite of growth signal, trend direction, opportunity, recency, and user rating. Updated nightly against 6,481 approved AI tools. Published every Monday at 6am CT.

The formula

Every tool's Heat Score is a weighted sum of five inputs. Each input is rescaled to 0–100 before the weights are applied, so a score of 100 would require a tool to lead on every dimension simultaneously. In practice the top of the distribution sits in the high 80s.

heat_score =
    0.30 × growth_signal_weight
  + 0.25 × trend_direction_weight
  + 0.20 × opportunity_score
  + 0.15 × recency_boost
  + 0.10 × rating_normalized

growth_signal_weight

Categorical momentum label maintained by the Falcoscan editorial data layer: hot → 100, rising → 70, stable → 40, declining → 10. The single heaviest weight in the composite because it reflects real-time editorial judgment, not just historical metrics.

trend_direction_weight

Three-state direction of category/tool movement: up → 100, flat → 50, down → 10.

opportunity_score

Already a 0–100 value assigned per tool by the Falcoscan opportunity model, which considers addressable-market signals, competitive saturation, and differentiation.

recency_boost

Exponential decay with a 14-day half-life against the most recent observation of the tool. A tool observed today scores 100; one observed 14 days ago scores 37; one observed 30 days ago scores 12. Tools marked dead score 0 on this term.

recency_boost = 100 × exp(-days_since_observed / 14)

rating_normalized

User rating (0–5) rescaled to 0–100. The smallest weight in the composite because ratings are noisy at low volume; treated as a tie-breaker, not a primary signal.

Category Heat

The Heat Index and category-level heat values published in each Pulse issue are aggregates of tool Heat Scores combined with category-level properties — launch velocity, wrapper share, average opportunity, and average saturation — from our Market Terminal dataset. High means momentum; low means crowded, commoditized, or both.

Update cadence

Underlying tool signals refresh continuously. The Heat Score view recomputes nightly at 5:30am CT. A full snapshot of every metric is written to pulse_snapshots at 5:45am CT. Pulse publishes every Monday at 6:00am CT from that snapshot.

Citation format

When citing Pulse numbers in articles, threads, or research, please use the canonical form: “Source: Falcoscan Pulse, Issue N.” Link to the issue's dated URL (/pulse/YYYY-MM-DD) or the alias (/pulse/issue/N).

Changelog

v1.0 — April 2026. Initial public methodology. Heat Score formula fixed at the weights above. Category Heat uses a 50-base composite with saturation and wrapper-risk penalties. Recency term degrades gracefully when observation timestamps are missing, via a cascade through the most recent refresh event.

Limitations, honestly

Heat Score is an opinionated signal, not an oracle. The growth_signal input depends on editorial judgment, which means it reflects the Falcoscan team's read of the market — not an impartial measurement. If you disagree with a categorization, you'll be disagreeing with a human, and we'll hear you out. Any material change to the methodology is versioned and announced in the changelog above.